In the week between the corrected, largely symbolic first tabulation of ranked-choice votes and Tuesday, when a extra substantive tabulation is ready to be launched, New York City voters existed in one thing of a information vacuum.
The campaigns of each Kathryn Garcia and Eric Adams sought to fill the void with wonky memos explaining how their candidates would possibly win, given their relative energy amongst voters from varied components of the metropolis who despatched in absentee ballots as an alternative of voting in particular person.
As of final Tuesday, Mr. Adams was main Ms. Garcia by practically 15,000 in-person votes. That outcome was solely preliminary, although, as a result of at the time some 125,000 Democratic mail-in ballots had but to be counted. Most of these ballots are anticipated to be included in Tuesday’s tabulations.
The query the candidates have been attempting to reply is how all these absentee ballots will change the preliminary outcomes. Will they comply with the identical sample as the in-person ballots, giving the win to Mr. Adams? Or will they closely favor Ms. Garcia, placing her over the high?
A 3rd risk is they might catapult the third-place finisher, Maya Wiley, into first. The ranked-choice voting system makes predictions extraordinarily advanced.
Mr. Adams’s marketing campaign memo argues that he’s more likely to win in the ultimate depend as a result of there are practically 38,000 absentee ballots from districts the place Mr. Adams’s margin over Ms. Garcia was higher than 20 p.c in first-choice rankings, whereas there are solely 35,600 absentee votes coming from districts the place Ms. Garcia had a large lead.
Ms. Garcia’s memo, predictably, has a special take. Her marketing campaign argues that as a result of Ms. Garcia is poised to profit from second-place votes from New Yorkers who ranked Ms. Wiley and Andrew Yang first, she is the consensus candidate who’s more likely to emerge victorious.
“This is a ranked choice election — not first-past-the-post — and the winner is NOT necessarily the candidate in first place in Round 1,” the memo reads, citing a 2010 mayoral election in Oakland, Calif., through which the eventual victor, Jean Quan, overtook the first-round winner in the metropolis’s ranked-choice voting.
“As we patiently await the results of the R.C.V. tabulation including all absentee ballots,” the memo stated, “the Garcia campaign should remain confident in our path to victory.”