Is N.Y.C. Doing Enough to Slow 3rd Virus Wave? Experts Raise Doubts.

Mayor Bill de Blasio introduced on Wednesday that some metropolis workers who aren’t vaccinated will quickly be required to get a weekly coronavirus check.

Though far wanting mandating vaccinations, the brand new coverage was nonetheless notable: It was City Hall’s first effort to stress a bunch of metropolis staff to get vaccinated by inconveniencing those that didn’t.

But it left some public well being specialists questioning why City Hall’s coverage was so restricted, particularly when the unfold of the Delta variant has led to an increase in instances. The coverage solely applies to the greater than 40,000 workers of the town’s public hospital system and a few staff on the Department of Health who work primarily in well being care settings.

But Mr. de Blasio has been hesitant to require the identical of the opposite 300,000 staff on the town’s payroll — law enforcement officials, firefighters, correctional officers, clerical staff, janitors and extra.

Also, Mr. de Blasio mentioned there are not any plans to reinstitute a masks mandate. For now, the coverage introduced on Wednesday would be the extent of the town’s response to the greater than 600 new virus instances per day within the final week.

Some specialists assume it isn’t sufficient

With the town’s vaccination fee hardly budging, and the Delta variant threatening a 3rd wave of instances, some epidemiologists expressed concern that the town was shifting too slowly.

Dr. Wafaa El-Sadr, a professor of epidemiology at Columbia University, puzzled why the town didn’t lengthen this coverage to all metropolis workers.

“I think the time is right,” she mentioned.

About 60 p.c of the general public hospital system’s work drive is vaccinated, a fee that’s decrease than the citywide full vaccination fee for grownup New Yorkers (65 p.c). Some different municipal companies have related charges.

The Fire Department mentioned that solely about 50 p.c of rank-and-file firefighters and emergency medical technicians are vaccinated. About 60 p.c of academics have been vaccinated as of late June, in accordance to the Department of Education.

Dr. El-Sadr mentioned that the town ought to think about a stricter coverage for academics, requiring them to get vaccinated if they didn’t have a medical or spiritual exemption and have been going to be assigned to school rooms with kids who have been too younger to be vaccinated.

Another epidemiologist, Dr. Kitaw Demissie, mentioned that at this stage of the vaccination marketing campaign — seven months in and with flagging latest outcomes, even because the variants develop extra contagious — it was acceptable to begin requiring unfavourable coronavirus exams from municipal staff who had but to get vaccinated.

“It’s a very simple thing to ask,” mentioned Dr. Demissie, who’s dean of the School of Public Health at SUNY Downstate Medical Center in Brooklyn. “This is a way to put pressure on people — or you can call it encouragement — to get vaccinated.”

Both Dr. El-Sadr and Dr. Demissie famous that common testing of unvaccinated workers may additionally assist cut back transmission.

The program could possibly be expanded

Quite a few unions representing municipal staff have expressed opposition to necessary vaccinations. But they haven’t come out towards City Hall’s new coverage, which is extra of a testing mandate than a vaccination mandate.

The mayor mentioned he wished to begin small with the town’s well being care staff — a pilot program, of kinds — earlier than contemplating increasing the coverage to different metropolis companies.

“We had to get started in the most important place,” Mr. de Blasio mentioned Wednesday. “That’s our health care workers, and we have to build out a model.”

“We are definitely looking at other possibilities,” he added, “but we’re not there yet.”

What different cities are doing

San Francisco introduced final month that it’ll finally require all 35,000 of its metropolis workers to be vaccinated.

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Los Angeles lately set a brand new indoor masks mandate, together with for vaccinated residents.

Chicago has set some journey restrictions and warned that further guidelines could possibly be coming. Unvaccinated residents there are urged to get examined after touring to Florida, Louisiana and a handful of different states with increased instances.

In New Jersey, Gov. Philip D. Murphy mentioned he hoped his state wouldn’t have to return to an indoor masks mandate and different restrictions. But he mentioned this week: “If we have to, we will.”

Mr. de Blasio has been reluctant to require masks indoors once more in New York City, although they’re required in some locations like on public transit.

“If you’re talking about fighting Covid and the Delta variant and winning this battle once and for all, a mask is like a peashooter and the vaccine is like a cannon,” the mayor mentioned on Wednesday. “The vaccine is what actually wins.”

Eric Adams, the Democratic nominee for mayor, mentioned on Wednesday that he didn’t need the town to return to requiring all New Yorkers to put on masks once more.

“I’m hoping that we don’t,” Mr. Adams mentioned in a tv interview, including that residents ought to “be smart” and do their half to finish the pandemic.

Hospitals haven’t been routinely testing workers

Employee coronavirus testing insurance policies at well being care services in New York have been spotty, so the brand new coverage will no less than assist enhance on that.

Part of the rationale for the shortage of testing is that testing capability was so restricted early on, and outcomes may take some time. But it’s also as a result of in the course of the preliminary surge final March and April, hospitals have been dealing with an amazing surge of sufferers and wanted employees at work.

“In the early months of the pandemic, hospitals wanted nurses on the job,” the New York State Nurses Association, the state’s largest nurses union, mentioned in an announcement. “They were not informing employees of exposures and were not testing many who knew they had been exposed — even those with symptoms.”

(People with Covid-19 also can check optimistic for weeks after they’re sick.)

At the town’s public hospitals, there hasn’t been a routine testing program of workers till now, with the mayor’s order.

‘We do see a small third wave coming’

Just two months in the past, New York’s epidemic appeared largely over: case counts have been dropping to ranges not seen in a yr and the vaccination fee was ticking up. Mr. de Blasio promised this could be “the summer of New York City” and many individuals nodded in settlement.

But the Delta variant represents a brand new menace. With the brand new coverage, the town appeared to understand that some form of motion was crucial.

The excellent news is that about 54 p.c of all New Yorkers — and a big majority of essentially the most weak — are absolutely vaccinated.

“We do see a small third wave coming,” mentioned Dr. Ronald Scott Braithwaite, a professor at N.Y.U. Grossman School of Medicine who has been main a crew that has been modeling New York City’s epidemic for metropolis officers. His modeling crew predicts a complete of about 900 deaths in a coming third wave.

During the primary wave final spring, when ambulance sirens blared throughout the town, greater than 20,000 New York City residents died of Covid-19. The loss of life toll from the lengthy second wave was lower than half that.

Dr. Braithwaite mentioned that his modeling crew predicted the third wave would possibly peak in October, with some 400,000 to 500,000 New Yorkers contaminated.

More than three.four million New Yorkers have but to obtain a primary dose of a coronavirus vaccine. That consists of about 1.four million kids, a lot of whom are ineligible for vaccination.

No modifications to college plan — for now

Mr. de Blasio insists that faculties will absolutely reopen in September as deliberate and that the town is not going to provide a distant choice.

“I think it would be a horrible shame if another year in the lives of our children was lost, and I think it would cause a lot of other problems and pain for our kids,” Mr. de Blasio mentioned in an interview on CNN on Wednesday.

The mayor is urging mother and father to vaccinate college students 12 years and older, however youthful kids can’t but get vaccinated. The metropolis plans to require college students to put on masks in school and can have different security guidelines in place.

“We said for months and months, kids will be wearing masks in the new school year,” Mr. de Blasio mentioned this week. “It’s indoors. It’s a lot of people together.”

Emma Goldberg and Ashley Southall contributed reporting.